Beyond Oil

"[Beyond Oil] is an authoritative, explicit, and timely view of energy alternatives in the coming exhaustion of the world's vital petroleum reserves. In clear and delightfully readable prose, Deffeyes (Princeton Univ.) uses insightful balance and aggressive analysis coupled with his own appropriate geological anecdotes and memories to view the capabilities of the replacement fuels that must be considered for use in the near future . . . Lightly illustrated, footnoted, and indexed, this book is intended to provide an intelligent readership with an appreciation for the temporal and technical aspects of postpetroleum energy considerations. This work would be useful as a current holding for serving students of political science, economics, science, and technology."—W.C. Peters, Choice

"There is valuable information to be gleaned from this thoughtful and entertaining book . . . Deffeyes combines his expertise in science in general and geology in particular with anecdotes from his extensive work in the private sector as a petroleum geologist to assess potential alternatives to oil . . . For each, he describes its geological origins and the engineering difficulties that are associated with its production. In addition, he offers many engineering rules of thumb that influence the economic viability of the alternatives. Better than any economic cost-benefit analysis, this combination of theory and practical know-how gives the reader a better feel as to why there is still no obvious alternative to oil. As such, these chapters are ideal for non-specialists and undergraduates who are convinced that the world will eventually need a replacement for oil but wonder why people shy away from this need every time the price of oil drops from its most recent peak . . . Readers should remember that the book uses a methodology that generated a remarkably accurate forecast for one of the most important economic events in the twentieth century. And that creates the book's real take-home message: even if production does not peak in 2005, we all need to know that Hubbert's peak is coming soon, and we had better start thinking about a future without oil."—Robert K. Kaufmann, Nature

"If my college econ textbooks had been written this way I might have learned economics."—Rupert Cutler, The Roanoke Times

"Deffeyes is an amiable guide. With a consultant-cum-Rotarian's ease, he explores the angst from the downslide of geologist M. King Hubbert's predicted high point of production."—Jane Holtz Kay, The Christian Science Monitor

"We are all hooked on oil, and oil is getting scarcer. Like it or not, changes are coming. But do we understand our choices, or even the variables that control our choices? Using aggressive analysis, common sense, and a liberal dash of humor, Deffeyes lays out our options. It's your life, your choices, your future; you can't afford to miss this book"—Brian J. Skinner, Eugene Higgins Professor of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University

"With his folksy style and penetrating vision, Deffeyes tells it like it is. Beyond Oil is another nail in the coffin of the age of oil."—David Goodstein, vice provost, California Institute of Technology, and author of Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil

"A valuable encore to Hubbert's Peak, this new book by Professor Deffeyes offers a wide-ranging overview of the world's energy alternatives 'beyond oil.' Its crystal-clear prose, easily understood by the layman, is peppered with anecdotes, memories, and scientific insights, mirroring the author's half century of first-hand experience in the industry."—A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, senior expert, National Iranian Oil Company

"In his new book, Professor Deffeyes stands on the world's peak oil output like Moses peering from the mountain top to the Promised Land. Beyond Oil is a must read for anyone who wants to learn more about one of the biggest challenges humanity has ever faced."—Matthew R. Simmons, chairman, Simmons & Company International

"Deffeyes delves into the geophysical characteristics of the fuel's source rocks and how those affect the economics of retrieving it; he then returns the discussion to its beginning: that the world is near or on Hubbert's Peak. Deffeyes' background as an oil-company geologist and university professor lends a realistic pragmatism to his presentation, which is replete with personal anecdotes and funny remarks that enliven his text. A practical yet genial treatment."—Gilbert Taylor, Booklist

"The world is running on empty, warns petroleum geologist Deffeyes, and yet Humvees continue to roll down the assembly lines, roads to be built, and economic models to be churned out. Hubbert's Peak refers not to an oil-implicated place along the lines of Kuwait or Teapot Dome, but to a statistical concept hatched in the 1950s by another geologist, M. King Hubbert: it posits that world oil production over time will follow the classic bell curve, the apex of which took place in the past. Tinkering with Hubbert's math just a little, Deffeyes projects that the end of 2005 will see total oil production at 2.013 trillion barrels, adding, 'Wherever the peak, the view is not good.' He adds, provocatively, that Thanksgiving of that year ought to be designated World Oil Peak Day and that we use the occasion to give thanks to the years 1901 to 2004, when oil was abundant and cheap. Stopgap measures will not help, he offers: drilling the five billion barrels locked up in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, as the Bush administration has been thirsting to do for years, will only 'postpone the world decline for two or three months.' What, then, is to be done? Well, Deffeyes suggests, we can always try to capitalize by buying into an oil royalty trust. More to the point, governments can develop coal and nuclear energy generators in the short term, polluting and potentially hazardous though they may be, while looking for longer-term solutions with a sense of urgency behind them. And ordinary consumers can learn to turn off lights, eat foods that don't require tons of pesticides and shipping far distances out of season, and stop buying gas-guzzlers—or, as Deffeyes growls, departing from his friendly college-lecture style, 'find some other way of publicizing your testosterone.' A timely, compelling argument that should make owners of hybrid cars just a little bit happier, and everyone else very glum indeed."—Kirkus Reviews

"For those who wonder why certain countries insist on developing nuclear power, geologist Deffeyes has a possible answer: 'World oil production has ceased growing.' In this sobering, instructive and somewhat apocalyptic book, Deffeyes paints a bleak picture of the future of fossil fuels and of what will happen to the world without them. Deffeyes bases his book on the work of M. King Hubbert, who mathematically determined that the world's oil supply would peak in 2000 and then drop steadily thereafter. Deffeyes tackles the mathematics of Hubbert's method and offers his own prediction (that the peak will occur at the end of 2005), but there is plenty here for those who aren't enamored with numbers, including a crash course in the slow evolution of oil. Oil and its related petroleum byproducts, Deffeyes points out, have changed the world economically, technologically and socially, and its absence could have a similarly massive, though negative, effect. Deffeyes predicts that famine, war and death will result from the shortages, but he does more than just sound the alarm: a large portion of the book is devoted to surveying the pros and cons of alternative resources like coal and hydrogen . . . This is an earnestly written cautionary tale and a great resource for anyone looking to become energy literate."—Publishers Weekly