INTRODUCTION
If you’re the sort of person who buys and reads books about human behavior, then it is likely you have recently encountered an exciting, counterintuitive new psychological idea that seems as if it could help solve a pressing societal problem like educational inequality, race relations, or misogyny. Maybe you came across it in a TED Talk. Or, if not there, in an op-ed or blog post or book.
It is, after all, a golden age for popular behavioral science. As the University of Virginia law professor Gregory Mitchell, a keen critic and observer of the field, wrote in 2017, “With press releases from journals and universities feeding a content-hungry media, publishing houses looking for the next Gladwellian bestseller, governments embracing behavioral science, and courts increasingly open to evidence from social scientists, psychologists have more opportunities than ever to educate the public on what they have learned about why people behave as they do.”1
I should know. Starting in March 2014, I was the editor of Science of Us, New York magazine’s newly launched online social science section. It was my job, and the job of the very talented people I worked with, to find new, interesting behavioral science research to write about every day of the week and to do so in a rigorous, sometimes skeptical manner.
Thanks to a fairly stats-heavy master’s program I had completed, I knew some of the differences between good and bad research, and some of the ways quantitative claims can mislead. What I didn’t anticipate was the fire hose of overhyped findings that would fill my email in-box daily, the countless press releases from research institutions touting all-caps AMAZING results that would surely blow my mind, and the minds of our readers, bringing us impressive web traffic in the process. I treaded water as best I could, trying to resist the lure of bad science by writing and editing stories we could be proud of. But I don’t think I quite grasped the full scale of the problem.
That changed in September 2015. That was when I met with Jeff Mosenkis, who does communications for the research organization Innovations for Poverty Action and who also happens to have a PhD in comparative human development (a blend of anthropology, social psychology, and other fields). Perhaps because he had noticed that I appreciated the debunking of overhyped research findings, he had decided to pass along a tip: I should look at the flaws in the implicit association test.
Maybe you’ve heard of this test. Commonly referred to as the IAT, it is seen by important people with impressive credentials as the most promising technological tool for attenuating the impact of racism. The idea is that by gauging your reaction time to various combinations of words and images—say, a black face next to the word “happy,” or a white one next to the word “danger”—the test can reveal your unconscious, or implicit, bias against various groups. The test, introduced in 1998, has been a blockbuster success. Anyone can take it on Harvard University’s website, and over the years its architects and evangelists, some of the biggest names in social psychology, have adapted it for all sorts of diversity-training uses. It would be hard to overstate its impact on schools, police departments, corporations, and many other institutions.
In his email, Jeff said there was a story waiting to be told by a journalist; the test was weak and unreliable, statistically speaking. A group of researchers had published work showing rather convincingly that the test barely measures anything of real-world import. Which, if true, would naturally raise some questions about the possibility that Harvard was apparently “diagnosing” millions (literally millions) of people as unconsciously biased on the basis of a flimsy methodology, and about all the money being spent on IAT-based trainings.
I was intrigued by Jeff’s email and soon got in touch with one of the skeptical researchers, Hart Blanton, who was then at the University of Connecticut. As I started looking into his claims, I realized that I had simply assumed the test did what its most enthusiastic proponents said it did, despite the rather audacious nature of their claim: that a ten-minute computer task with no connection to the real world could predict subtle forms of real-world discrimination. I had credulously accepted these claims because I had figured that if almost the entire discipline of social psychology had embraced this innovation as a cutting-edge tool in the fight against racism, and a multitude of organizations outside academia had followed suit, all these people must have known what they were doing. This brought a pang of shame. “I believe this thing because a lot of people say it is true” is not a great stance for a science writer and editor.
After a lot of reading and interviewing, I concluded Blanton was correct. As I wrote in a subsequent article, the statistical evidence for the sorts of claims the IAT’s creators were making was sorely lacking.2 There was a gap between what many people believed to be true about the test and what the evidence revealed. Part of what was going on was that the IAT told a good story that lined up with certain liberal anxieties about race relations, tinged with an optimistic note—Sure, everyone’s racist deep down, but this test can help us discover and undo those biases, one person at a time!—and people wanted to believe that story. If millions of people believed in the IAT largely on the basis of good storytelling and the impressive credentials of its creators, what did that say about the manner in which we talked about these issues? Could it be that urgent tasks like police reform were being approached in the wrong way? And what about the broader current state of behavioral science? What else was I missing?
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WHAT I SOON REALIZED is that our society’s fascination with psychology has a dark side: many half-baked ideas—ideas that may not be 100 percent bunk but which are severely overhyped—are being enthusiastically spread, despite a lack of hard evidence in their favor. The IAT is one example, but there are numerous others. The popularity of these ideas, as well as the breathless manner in which they are marketed by TED Talks and university press offices and journalists and podcasts, is not harmless. It misallocates resources to overclaiming researchers when others are experiencing a funding crunch, and it degrades the institution of psychology by blurring the line between behavioral science and behavioral pseudoscience.
Perhaps most important, these ideas are frequently being adopted by schools, corporations, and nonprofits eager to embrace the Next Big Thing to come out of the labs and lecture halls of Harvard or the University of Pennsylvania. As the decision-makers who work in these institutions have grown more fluent in science and cognizant of the need to look to behavioral scientists for guidance (a good thing), they’ve also become more susceptible to half-baked behavioral science (a bad thing). And this explosion of interest in psychological science has occurred at a time when, if anything, people should be more cautious about embracing new and exciting psychological claims. As we’ll see, many findings in psychology—including those featured in introductory textbooks—are failing to replicate, meaning that when researchers attempt to re-create them with new experiments, they are coming up short. This so-called replication crisis has cast a giant shadow over the entire field of psychology, and the best available evidence suggests that a sizable chunk of published psychological findings may be false (though the size of that chunk is a source of heated debate). Many psychologists themselves may be unwittingly helping to promote half-baked science that seems to be built upon a solid foundation of published research. In all likelihood, we’ll look back wincingly at some of the popular theories being taught and developed today and, all too often, transformed into sleek interventions that promise to alleviate our ills.*
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THIS BOOK IS AN ATTEMPT to explain the allure of fad psychology, why that allure is so strong, and how both individuals and institutions can do a better job of resisting it. It is important to improve our understanding of how behavioral scientific information circulates in the public realm, because only sound knowledge will earn us the improvements we wish for. Just as we can’t enact successful environmental and energy policies while denying global warming, and we can’t improve global public health without taking a stand against anti-vaccination myths, we will never solve the pressing social issues of the day—racism and inequality and the education gaps and so many others—while relying on claims about human behavior and how to change it that are half-true at best.
The spread of half-baked behavioral science can’t be explained apart from the present state of American political and intellectual life. The country has suffered from decades of rising inequality paired with interminable political dysfunction, and as institution after institution has seen its legitimacy crumble, there’s been an ever-intensifying focus on the individual. We’re living in what the Princeton historian Daniel Rodgers calls an age of fracture, the title of his invaluable 2011 book. “Conceptions of human nature that in the post–World War II era had been thick with context, social circumstance, institutions, and history gave way to conceptions of human nature that stressed choice, agency, performance, and desire,” he explains. “Strong metaphors of society were supplanted by weaker ones. Imagined collectivities shrank; notions of structure and power thinned out.”3 In this dispensation, we are taken to be discrete individuals floating around in markets, increasingly responsible for our own well-being and increasingly cut off from the big groups and institutions and shared ideas that gave American life so much of its feeling and texture and meaning in the past. (Of course, many Americans, by dint of their race or gender or religion or sexual orientation, would not want to return to that past.)
Americans are also living with the consequences of what the political scientist Jacob Hacker has termed “the great risk shift”: as the nation’s social safety net has frayed and ever more risk has been off-loaded from companies and the government onto overburdened Americans, economic insecurity has crept higher and higher up the income and wealth ladders. This only exacerbates the sense that everyone must fiercely defend their gains and stand vigilant against the possibility of sliding down into a less advantaged position. The combination of the age of fracture with the great risk shift likely affects what sort of behavioral science wins out in the marketplace of ideas: it likely shifts the focus toward improving and optimizing and repairing individuals rather than understanding how they are influenced by big, roiling forces largely beyond their control.
Within psychology, particularly social psychology, these tendencies have given rise to what I call Primeworld,4 a worldview fixated on the idea that people’s behavior is largely driven—and can be altered—by subtle forces. Central to Primeworld are, well, “primes,” the unconscious influences that, according to some psychologists, affect our behavior in surprisingly powerful ways: holding a warm drink makes people act more warmly toward others, claims one finding, and being exposed to stimuli connected to the elderly makes people walk slower, claims another. The proponents of Primeworld suggest we can work toward “fixing” individuals by helping them to understand the influence of primes and biases. Their accounts have three main characteristics: big, imposing social structures and systems are invisible, unimportant, or improved fairly easily; primes and biases have an outsize influence on societal outcomes; and these primes and biases can be fixed, to tremendously salubrious effect, thanks to the interventions offered by wise behavioral scientists.
This worldview treats complicated problems as though they can be significantly ameliorated or solved with quick fixes: with cute, cost-effective interventions by psychologists. Over and over, throughout this book, we will see situations in which otherwise brilliant researchers examining some of the most complicated problems known to humankind have adopted the tenets of Primeworld. Whereas a social scientist taking a broader view might look at a problem like “the education gap” between white and black students and explain that it has many complicated causes, ranging from segregated schools to early-life experiences to the impact of tutoring, Primeworld adherents will take a different tack. They will stress that a great deal of progress can be made by optimizing the individual participants in the system, whether students (perhaps via increasing their “grit,” meaning their ability to stick with difficult problems tenaciously) or teachers (perhaps via IAT-based trainings).
The point is not that Primeworlders deny that there’s a bigger world out there, beyond primes and biases; if you asked them, they would quickly acknowledge that yes, there is. The problem is that their work speaks for itself, advancing a set of very specific, very zoomed-in priorities. As a result of their evident excitement over exploring biases and primes and the potential to optimize individuals, almost everything else fades into the background, indistinct and all too easily ignored. But it is increasingly clear that Primeworld simply hasn’t delivered. Over and over, it has been shown that the interventions its members favor simply don’t warrant the hype they generate, and there’s strong reason to believe that they fail because they neglect to attend to deeper, more structural factors that are not easily remedied via psychological interventions.
As this book will show, this does not mean we should give up on applied behavioral science entirely. Psychology has produced some ideas—particularly certain so-called nudges and interventions targeting institutions rather than individuals—that have held up well under scrutiny, and is likely to produce more as methodological reforms take hold (which, as we will see, has already begun happening).
Still, there are good reasons to be wary of the styles of psychological research that have seized public attention in recent years. And yet we fall for quick-fix, half-baked behavioral science over and over again.
1
THE SELLING OF SELF-ESTEEM
What I remember is the image of a balloon. I’m in kindergarten or first grade, seated on the floor with other tiny people, and a teacher is explaining to us that we all have this balloon in us called self-esteem—a point she is illustrating with an actual balloon. Sometimes, people are nice to us or we do well in school, and that feeling inflates the balloon a little; here I don’t remember but can only assume that the teacher blew into the balloon. Other times, bad things happen—we’re excluded or get mad or get yelled at—and the balloon deflates (the teacher lets a little air out). The more air that is in the balloon, the better off we’ll be, we are told. We’re likely to make smarter decisions, act more kindly toward others, and simply be better people overall. These balloons are very important.
This would have been in 1990 or so, and all around the country other children in other classrooms were hearing the same thing. The general tenor of the era’s obsession with self-esteem is captured rather memorably in a 1991 children’s book called The Lovables in the Kingdom of Self-Esteem. Written by Diane Loomans and illustrated by Kim Howard, The Lovables imparts a simple, nurturing message: you, the child reading this book or having this book read to you, are very special.
The inside copy reads as follows:
I AM LOVABLE!
I AM LOVABLE!
I AM LOVABLE!
By using these magical words, the gates to the Kingdom of Self-Esteem swing open for readers of all ages. Inside the Kingdom live twenty-four animals—the Lovables—each one with a special gift to contribute. Mona Monkey is lovable. Owen Owl is capable. Buddy Beaver takes care of the world around him. Greta Goat trusts herself.
The Lovables is no outlier. If you grew up or raised a child during the 1980s or 1990s, you likely remember such messages. A certain ethos took hold during this time: self-esteem was just about the most important thing society could give a young person—a crucial trait that could mean the difference between success and catastrophe—and therefore it was vital for schools to impart it.
Though it wasn’t just for schoolkids. At the peak of this fad, just about everyone, from CEOs to welfare recipients, was told—often by psychologists with serious credentials—that improving their self-esteem could “unlock the gates” of success. This was both a personal argument and a political one: the movement, which had its epicenter in California, claimed that increasing people’s self-esteem could reduce crime, teen pregnancy, and a host of other social ills, even pollution. And once it caught on, it was taken quite seriously by policy makers, to the point where numerous states would allocate taxpayer money specifically toward self-esteem programs.
The vogue for self-esteem had many origins, but its institutionalization in schools was mostly the work of a single, very eccentric California politician. John Vasconcellos, who died in 2014, was a Democratic state legislator representing Silicon Valley for thirty-eight years—thirty in the state assembly and eight in the state senate. In his obituary, the San Jose Mercury-News described him as a “famously rumpled bear-of-a-man” who was “colorful, witty, brilliant, angry, intellectual and elegantly foul of mouth.”1 Most of all, though, he was a nonconformist—during one three-year stretch, he decided to just let his hair grow and grow and grow—and his nonconformity frequently took on a decidedly California hue. Vasconcellos was an idealist who was convinced that humans had untold, untapped greatness, but it was an idealism driven in part by a bevy of personal demons and a long-running battle to control his anger problems. He was quite public about his varied attempts at self-improvement, which ranged from obscure forms of therapy to the teachings of the New Age Esalen Institute in Big Sur.
Vasconcellos, known as Vasco around Sacramento, was a searcher in every sense of the word. “By the mid-1980s,” writes the British journalist Will Storr in his book Selfie, “Vasco’s intellectual explorations had taken him to far shores, and he’d become notorious, around the Capitol, for some of his crazier ideas. He wondered, for example, if a special form of ‘gentle birthing’ might lead to less violent humans. He was apparently at least curious about the idea that children having sex with their parents was not, in fact, harmful to the child but natural and healthy; he’d read reports of women expressing pride at having lost their virginities to their fathers and invited a proponent of paedophilia to join his ‘network on sexuality.’”2
Copyright © 2021 by Jesse Singal