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Futurecast

How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change Your World by the Year 2020

Robert J. Shapiro

St. Martin's Griffin

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ISBN10: 0312352433
ISBN13: 9780312352431

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368 Pages

$23.99

CA$26.99

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In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro, former United States Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman and Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to how the world will be changing in the dozen years between 2008 and 2020. Though that time span seems brief, Shapiro foresees monumental changes caused by three forces—globalization, the aging of societies, and America's role as a sole superpower—will determine the paths of nations and the lives of their citizens. What will the job market look like? What will happen to health care? How safe will people be at home or abroad? Even more so than they do today, the economy, the health system, and an individual's safety will depend on where he or she resides.

According to Shapiro's predictions, the U.S. and China will be the world's two indispensable economies, dominating the course of globalization. Even as China expands its military and its economy, America will be the world's sole superpower for at least the next generation, and continue to lead efforts to preserve global security and stability.

Meanwhile, Shapiro says, globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing and millions of high-end service jobs to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations. Europe's major nations and Japan will face the prospect of genuine economic decline and critical problems in their retirement pension systems, moving further towards the periphery of global economic and geopolitical power.

Every major country will face critical problems within their health care systems. The worldwide energy crisis and climate change will continue to create challenges across the globe and the consequences will become increasingly apparent in daily life.

The threat of terrorism, Shapiro warns, will add a wildcard to what is already the most challenging period in modern times. These global developments will impact every nation's plans for the future. Futurecast is a portfolio of information to guide individuals as they prepare for the years to come.

Reviews

Praise for Futurecast

"Rob Shapiro's prescient and insightful book probes the confluence of challenges that society will face in the coming years. He argues that our world has become increasingly interdependent, and we must foster global cooperation to achieve a sustainable existence with equal opportunity for all. Futurecast is a vital resource for anyone seeking to understand the world our children will inherit."—President Bill Clinton

"A storm warning at a time when food shortages, higher energy prices and a credit crunch are forcing our heads out of the sand: if they turn to Futurecast, they will find an argument that gives us a measure of what we should expect from our political leaders—and from ourselves—if we are to continue our civilisation on the high plateau we have managed to reach."—The Financial Times

"Alarming but challenging. A dense yet well-written overview of the heavy factors that will remake the world. A thorough and gifted analysis."—Management Today

"A new world economy is emerging before our very eyes. Robert Shapiro not only understands the breadth and depth of these enormous changes but also is able to communicate them in a way that is clear, powerful and readily understandable. This is a brilliantly written book and a compelling analysis—that provides extremely valuable insights into the enormous and historic transitions now underway that will profoundly affect the world's major economies for decades to come."—Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International

"In America today, we are sorely in need of the big ideas that will elevate our electoral and legislative processes above the level of fundraising and high stakes lobbying. In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro creates the fertile ground from which these big ideas will spring by accurately predicting how all our lives will be changed, in the near future, by aging populations, globalization and the rise and fall of the superpowers. This book is a must-read as we head into this first half of the twenty-first century."—Al From, CEO of the Democratic Leadership Council

"Robert Shapiro understands the world and all of its complexity from the rise and fall of nations to the problem of aging populations. No one is better equipped to tell us where we're headed in the not-so-distant future."—Rolf Ekeus, High Commissioner on National Minorities (UN), former Executive Chairman of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq and former Swedish Ambassador to the United States

"In 1992 Rob Shapiro's analysis of the big changes in globalization became the intellectual framework for the Clinton campaign and Presidency. In this new book Rob returns to the subject and has written a book that is likely to do in 2008 what he did once before—offer the economic framework for the President and the nation. This book is a must read for anyone trying to make sense of how the global economy is changing in the early part of the 21st century."—Simon Rosenberg, chairman of the New Democrat Network

"What will the world look like in 2020? A former advisor to Bill Clinton presents his intriguing predictions. Shapiro, who now runs a private firm that advises governments, businesses and nonprofits here and abroad, deftly pulls together facts and figures to back up his statements. The vast swathes of ground he covers can be whittled down to four major areas that will mold our future. Three of these—political developments, globalization, broad changes in demographics—are joined by a relatively new concern: the wildly unpredictable changes in the environment and the alarming depletion of the Earth's natural energy sources. Shapiro drops in a mind-boggling array of statistical information as he maps out his ideas, and while some of the information may feel overly familiar—the rise of China as a major economic superpower, the fall of the Soviet Union, business outsourcing to India—it's presented in an entertaining and educational manner. The passages on demographics starkly highlight a comprehensive contrast between government benefits available to citizens of the United States and those offered in China and many of Europe's leading nations. The discussion on globalization illustrates interesting regional differences in the way McDonald's operates across the world (home delivery is available in Egypt and Turkey); it also leads to a lengthy chapter on how globalization will be shaped by China and the United States over the next decade or so. Shapiro closes with some insightful thoughts on how healthcare can be provided for an aging population and how much it will cost to halt the havoc that could be wreaked on the planet if global warming escalates. An illuminating, satisfying read."—Kirkus Reviews

"[Shapiro], a former undersecretary of commerce, now a private consultant to businesses and politicos (including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama), sets his sights on the near horizon and paints us a picture of our world a dozen years from now. Basing his insights on solid historical data as well as contemporary trends, Shapiro predicts, among other things, that we'll soon be buying our cars from Mexico and Turkey, that Europe will become less politically and economically relevant, and that China will emerge as a superpower rivaling the U.S. in its influence on the rest of the world . . . [Shapiro] effectively synthesizes current trends into a thought-provoking, well documented, persuasively argued treatise."—David Pitt, Booklist

Reviews from Goodreads

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Robert J. Shapiro discusses Futurecast at the Bernard Schwartz Forum

Watch this video to hear Dr. Robert J. Shapiro talk about his book Futurecast at the Bernard Schwartz Forum on Economic Policy on May 5, 2008. Dr. Robert Shapiro, Chair of NDN's Globalization Initiative, and Simon Rosenberg, NDN President, discuss U.S. politics, the economy, globalization, and world affairs at large.

About the author

Robert J. Shapiro

ROBERT J. SHAPIRO is chairman of Sonecon, LLC, an economic advisory firm, and a fellow at numerous academic and research institutions. He served as Under Secretary of Commerce from 1997-2001 and as Bill Clinton's principal economic advisor in the 1992 campaign. He also advised the campaign and transition of Barack Obama. He lives in Washington D.C.

Robert J. Shapiro

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